14 September 201414 September 2014 by programx360

Scottish Independance: look to the Isle of Man

The ongoing Scottish Independence issue has been a thorn in the UK’s side since the 13th century featuring such historical figures as Robert The Bruce, William Wallace and now, the perhaps less enigmatic, Alec Salmond. This week is going to see the decision to end all decisions (apparently), a referendum on independence by the Scottish people.

The closeness in the vote has been widely reported and serves to ramp up the tension and poll-fatigue in equal measure. Just get on with it, will you?

Key questions remain unanswered, despite the pontifications by both sides. How will the welfare state be managed? How will Scotland’s currency be handled? Will costs increase for Scots post-independence? What is Salmond really after?

Voters, who are being led by a media often accused of being partisan (including the BBC), have been asked to decide based on contradictory and incomplete statements, with few reference points to understand how independence could work.

Look to the Isle of Man

The Isle of Man enjoys an independence in all but name that provides it autonomy in most respects. We’re a quasi-independent state, apart from our reliance on defence services provided by the UK. Whilst the UK Government has the ultimate control of Manx legislation, it rarely exercises this right. The last time this was exercised was in the 60s for the banning of pirate radio stations such as Radio Caroline.

Scotland has a population of 5.6 million, the Isle of Man has just 80,000. Yet we have our own welfare state, National Insurance scheme and health service. These are all compatible with the UK systems, and collaboration is common where residents move to or from the island or require more advanced healthcare than is available on island. If we can finance our own welfare state, with apparently low taxation, why can’t Scotland?

We have our own parliament (one of the oldest continuous parliaments in the world), with powers extending widely and deeply allowing the island to truly govern itself. We can set our own fiscal, social, education and infrastructure policies. A recent consultation for the island has seen the island moving towards the International GCSE, instead of Michael Gove’s revised exam standards. Scotland can already set its own educational agenda, though aspects of its social and fiscal policies remain Westminster-authored. The education model in Scotland is certainly intriguing, considering the higher-education funding for Scottish students.

Stores have threatened higher costs for businesses which will be offloaded onto consumers. With or without currency union, a separate fiscal policy will undoubtedly add layers of complexity which may introduce additional costs. Residents of the Isle of Man can already attest to the higher expenses involved with living in a separate state, yet inevitably bound to the UK consumer market. Delivery costs are higher, food takes longer to get here and companies may need to domicile themselves as franchises within the island. In Scotland’s favour is the lack of the Irish Sea adding 12 hours to a delivery schedule.

The currency question, despite threats from Mark Carney about the possibility of achieving currency union or parity, is arguably possible based on a similar model by the Isle of Man. Guido Fawkes outlines the possibilities of parity-Pound based on the Manx model, who manage parity despite a continued lack of oil reserves. Salmond himself has also recognised the Manx Pound, though unfortunately refers to the island as a “tax haven” betraying his statemanship.

Then Scotland has its oil. How much they have, and whether it is actually theirs, England’s or Shetland’s remains to be seen. One thing is clear, the Isle of Man doesn’t have any yet we manage to fund ourselves (though apparently we’re going to have a look).

Perhaps the Isle of Man is closer to what Salmond may actually want, Devo-Max. We’re able to benefit from a close working relationship with the UK but remain autonomous, enjoying the best of both worlds.

Perhaps the better option would be to elect Groundskeeper Willy:

4 March 20146 March 2014 by programx360

Russia

Considering the events not only of the last few days in Ukraine, but stretching back some 20 years, Europe is a hotbed of activity for politics, civil unrest and conflict. With Russia on its doorstep, the dynamics within Europe are getting ever tenser, complicated by Russia’s gas advantage. I thought I’d explore some maps of Europe to try and understand these dynamics further.

NATO members

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was set up during the Cold War between the West and the USSR. Although its role has somewhat changed since the break up of the Soviet Union, it remains a reminder of that difficult period. As such Russia sees an increasing number of its neighbours joining NATO which can only increase its discomfort.

Source: NATO

EU members

Although Britain is currently deep within an in/out debate with regards the EU, other countries are fighting to get in. In particular, former Soviet countries are keen to embrace Western ways and identify membership of the EU as a major achievement and line in the sand from former times. More of Russia’s western neighbours are snubbing Eastern ways and favour integration with the former enemy.

Source: EU

Gas dependencies

Russia has a very strong position within the European gas market, accounting for around 30% of total gas dependence. Although alternative sources are constantly being explored, 30% can materially affect prices.

These statistics are from 2004 and are therefore fairly old. However, their significance remains.

Countries with dependence on Russian gas that are ex-Soviet countries: Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania Moldova, Latvia, Georgia, Estonia.

European countries with dependence on Russian gas greater than or equal to 0.5% of total domestic consumption: Germany, Italy, Turkey, France, Austria, Poland, Netherlands, Greece, Belgium.

European countries with dependence on Russian gas less than 0.5% of total domestic consumption: Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom

Source

Conflict within the last 20 years

From Serbia to Syria, Europe and the Middle-East is at best a basket-case of tension. Civil unrest, aggressive neighbours and religious conflict pepper the landscape. Just searching for “unrest” yields hundreds of results which suggests Europeans are a “bolshy” lot (etymology unintended). But countries in such close proximity, in the middle of the geographic cold war, are bound to see conflict.

States experiencing civil unrest: Azerbaijan (2013), Belarus (2010), Bulgaria (2013), Czech Republic (2011), Denmark (2008), England (2011), Estonia (2007), Greece (2011-ongoing), Hungary (2006), Italy (2010), Latvia (2009), Lithuania (2009), Moldova (2012), Romania (2012), Slovakia (2004), Slovenia (2012), Sweden (2013), Turkey (2013), Ukraine (2013-ongoing)

States experiencing conflict (on its own soil): Albania (1997), Bosnia, Croatia, Macedonia and Serbia (1992-1995), Georgia (2008), Libya (2011), Montenegro (1999), Northern Ireland (1968-1998)

21 May 201322 May 2013 by programx360

By-election fun! Sefton, bus drivers, economy and Manx Gaelic

It’s by-election time. And I love elections. It’s sort of a do-over from the poor result in the previous Isle of Man General Election which saw Geoff Corkish and John Shimmin get in, despite my feeble attempt otherwise. As a further spit in the face of democracy, Geoff Corkish, a man who has previously spoken against democratic freedom of speech using modern media such as social networks, has been promoted to the Legislative Council – undemocratically.

The four candidates have been out campaigning in the Douglas West ward, some of whom are hoping for better success this time round.

Martin Moore once again put his name forward for election, a welcome move considering his agitation at the way the MHKs are conducting themselves and the island. I like an agitator. However, once again he pulled out. This time, it wasn’t because he filled in the forms wrong, it was because he got cold feet.

That left Clive Dawson, John Skinner, Quintin Gill and Chris Thomas. I sent them all an email asking 4 simple questions:

Sefton. Handled well? What could have been done better?
The island is looking pretty dire economically. How can this be improved?
Bus drivers’ strike generally, and in particular over TT week. Other public workers have similar poorly handled contracts. Are we to expect another set of strikes?
Manx Gaelic investment and support. How will you act to maintain this heritage and educational benefit?

Quintin Gill has relocated from his previous ward of Rushen where he lost in 2011.Perhaps experience would be an asset. With his manifesto citing “earn more, spend less, utilise savings”, it seems pretty usual electioneering. Expansion of existing sectors such as E-Gaming to earn more is unimaginative. Spending less on already inflated salaries is going to be very difficult – when was the last person to quietly sacrifice their inflated package? And utilise savings? Of course, use the reserves – I’m sure they’ve already been spent at least twice. On Sefton he was of the same idea as Clive Dawson, that the case sadly lacked any form of PR competence to involve the tax payer and voter in their explanations. As for Manx Gaelic, he acknowledged the value of Manx Gaelic, particularly as it has such good value for money. Whilst not committing to anything in particular, he did sign off “lhiats”.

Chris Thomas’ manifesto seems to be very well thought out and is the only one to include actual data in numeric and graph form. Some good ideas, particularly his views on The Steam Packet and MEA being brought back into local ownership. Although he says he has a certificate in Manx Gaelic and has strong Manx Gaelic knowledge within his team, no real commitments were obvious other than general support in heritage. I’m looking for something more than just Manx Gaelic as a heritage asset.

John Skinner failed to engage with me last time and didn’t bother to reply to the email this time, either. So much for him. Must try harder. In fact, don’t bother. There’s no room for more tardiness in Tynwald.

Clive Dawson was the only candidate to make the effort to come out and see me after reading the email. A nice guy, seems honest, though he is unapologetically UKIP like. When I challenged him on this, he was quite enthusiastic about removing benefits from immigrants and actively preventing future immigration to the island despite the value of working immigrant people – myself included (though this was apparently a different type of immigration). He suggested the island could get out of the financial problems it finds itself in through attracting charities to use the island as a base, but in the same breath, also Middle Eastern countries such as Qatar – even with their questionable human rights. Clive acknowledged the value of a second language and the value of developing bilingualism in education, but seemed more concerned about other languages than Manx Gaelic. However, I do thank him for his time.

Update – 22 May 2013 – Day before

John Skinner did email me tonight. Perhaps too late to swing my decision. Alas, his response was again a mixture of better PR and a lack lustre assertion of the importance of Manx Gaelic. He did suggest that things are as bad as I made out for the island, which has enjoyed consistent economic performance of 3%. Maybe, but tell that to those who are losing their jobs and seeing small business closed (the bigger ones just get bailed out).

6 May 20106 May 2013 by programx360

Is Social Media powered by Lefties?

So today is the big day of the General Election and we’re just left to sit in a bizarre radio silence while the polls remain open that seems unearthly following the past hectic 4 weeks. I’ve been watching and participating in various social media channels to add my 2 cents (so to speak) on policy, parties, debates and discuss with fellow Tweeters and Facebookers. I’ve enjoyed the last four weeks, except for the distraction element!

We know that the opinion polls are essentially meaningless, and who knows anyone who knows anyone who has ever been polled anyway? Assuming there is some validity in them, over the past four weeks we have come to see a pattern. Starting with The Conservatives in front, they lost a number of points to the Liberal Democrats following the leader’s debates. This has been particularly fascinating, as we may now need to upgrade Peter Snow’s (well, it’ll always be Peter’s, Jeremy) Swingometer to the third dimension. Points have been traded between all three parties, but particularly between The Conservatives and The Liberal Democrats.

One party’s performance has remained consistent, however. Labour has been losing points and sat at third place across most polls taken last night (5 May 2010). Yet, if you look at Twitter, you’d not see that pattern. Yesterday, I pinned my flag to the post as far as my voting inclinations, and this resulted in a number of people replying to me telling me of their disappointment and whether they would unfollow me, or not. We had a bit of a debate and I imagine threats to unfollow me were in jest. I expect that only people who disagreed with my views would take the time to reply, but watching my stream today seems to be of the same opinion – that of the left of the political spectrum.

So is Twitter and Social Media in general, just a bunch of Lefties?

Consider a Twitter search for “Tory”. Run your eyes down there and count how many are pro and how many are against a Conservative government. It seems people go out of their way to actually tweet “not Tory”, as opposed to who they voted for.

So while people are possibly tweeting in a left-of-centre manner, that’s not necessarily due to lack of effort by other parties. TweetMinster has been an excellent service in the last few weeks and has profiled the live Twitter feed according to region, issue, party and MP. Their analysis shows that both top parties are more or less equally represented – bit this is in candidates and MPs, not the “public vote”. So while David Cameron has specifically used Social Media and his various MPs have actively engaged with the electorate on Twitter, in an “Obama-style” campaign, it doesn’t seem to be doing him any good. In fact, it seems to be turning against him.

I would be a fool to think that this identifies any patterns which may be played out this evening, but it is a question worth asking. Does Social Media attract a more left-of-centre userbase? At first sight, it appears it does.

20 April 20106 May 2013 by programx360

Voter apathy – “None of the above”

Now Gordon Brown has finally called a General Election, it’s time for democracy to take over. I, for one, am very excited about the election and looking forward to staying up and watching the results trickle in and I am particularly looking forward to seeing how Social Media will play a part. Will this be another election like America’s most recent election, which saw Obama leverage Social Media to reach potential voters who wouldn’t otherwise participate?

But why will people not participate? In the last few weeks, I have spoken to a number of people about the election and politics in general. I think if you have been around me in the last 3 or 4 weeks you know exactly where I don’t stand. But people, of all ages, seem to be apathetic about the whole process. When asked, I either get the response, “What’s the point, they’re all the same”, or the even more frustrating “I’m not allowed to vote, my religion prevents it”.

People in general are clearly apathetic about the whole process. They look at the politicians, who are all fighting for the centre-ground, grasping at every benefit they can squeeze out of the system and acting seemingly unaware to their election manifesto. Politics has changed. Gone are the days of “old politics”, where you were a “lefty” or a “Tory”, or even a “bleedin’ heart liberal”. These aren’t particularly nice terms for what can often be deep beliefs and ideals, but they engendered a determinism in people. People were staunchly left, or right. They believed in their ideology and could trust their chosen party to implement those ideologies in whichever way they saw fit. Now, with all the parties fighting for the centre-ground, ground which had already been owned (and apparently sold) by the liberals, there are no real differences anymore. Choosing one party over the other isn’t going to produce the “change” that it perhaps could, which itself could regenerate politics, wider economics, and society.

I’m still sorry to have reacted in a very negative way about when I heard why someone (in their 50′s) would not vote. After stating “they’re all the same”, they then said they couldn’t vote anyway because their religion prevented it. Their religion is clearly a western religion, which despite appearances, is staunchly democratic in principle, so I can’t understand how this can be created in all seriousness within a western and democratic society. In what way does a religion have any right to restrict the rights and liberties of an individual? I can understand abstinence from the usual (adultery, theft, etc. is generally looked down upon), but exercising a civil right? I don’t think so.

I watched Blitz Street on Channel 4 yesterday and it highlighted the lengths to which people before us have gone to secure and maintain the right to exercise their role in a democratic process. That said, with the parties essentially fighting over what amounts to be a few hundred votes identified by their researchers as being likely to determine the success or otherwise of their individual parties, it i understandable why the vast majority of people feel disenfranchised from the process.

So what’s the solution?

We could take Australia’s policy and make it illegal to abstain from the process. Does this solve the problem, though? The fines are small so are an inconvenience at best, and it just means the voting papers will be spoilt or random selections be made just to “tick the box”. No, what is needed is a message to the incumbent and opposition that the present candidates are not acceptable. Such an option would be “None of the above”. By marking in “None of the above”, you will be specifically identifying your disatisfaction with the process or the candidate and not encoding this view into actions such as spoiling your paper or voting for a ridiculous option, such as Screaming Lord Such. Based on the results, the Electoral Services will be able to identify whether there is a dissatisfaction by region, demographic, or otherwise or parties may use the results to drive forward reform in constitutional processes.

16 October 20096 May 2013 by programx360

How to crush Royal Mail … if they don’t manage it themselves

I dislike militant workers with a passion. Fair enough, employee rights are important but there is a much wider issue here. Paralysing a country by calling on strikes to pull your staff out of sorting offices, railway infrastructure, fuel depots, etc. is unnacceptable and shows the ugly face of Socialism. Many of these strikes are due to pensions and “modern working practices”. By “modern working practices”, read “essential changes to remain competitive in a challenging marketplace and maybe doing a little more work or at a different time”. As far as I am concerned, if you are employed, you do what your manager says. If you don’t like it, you know where the door is … in this recession there are millions that would love to be able to pass you on the way out.

Royal Mail are currently being held to ransom by the CWU, who cite modern working prcatices and concerns with the pension fund as being reasons for the strike. Maybe if you read this slowly you might understand what they cannot, I assume because it is quite a complex proposition. The Royal Mail is in a highly competitive marketplace, is extremely expensive to operate and must find efficiencies to fund the pension fund. By walking out at a particularly difficult time of year, the CWU are actually making the lot of Royal Mail and its employees worse. So if they don’t manage to crush Royal Mail, here are some ideas you should try yourself in this modern technology-driven world that the CWU haven’t quite grasped

•Favour Internet shopping sites that use couriers to deliver your order. John Lewis is one example. If they don’t email their support desk to ask why they don’t provide the option.
•LoveFilm is an excellent way to access thousands of rented movies, but it requires the postal system to work. Until the UK catches up to the US and more providers get on board with internet-distributed movies, LoveFilm currently have a beta Watch-on-line service which allows you to watch films as part of your subscription, and for free for high-end subscriptions. Or, use XBox Video Marketplace (or your preferred console, if available) to download and watch films.
•Don’t send letters, postcards or cards. Use Facebook and Email.
•Don’t invoice your customers using paper, send invoices by email or by fax.
•Needless to say, don’t use Venda/shopiom.com to purchase products from the Isle of Man. If you’re a resident, go down to Strand Street. If not, go support a real shop and tell them you’re shopping “in the physical” because of Royal Mail’s strike.
•Many companies now offer electronic billing. Turn on e-billing and log into their web-site to check your account and make your payments.
•If you have bulk mailing to do, send it using a competitor, such as UKMail. They still need the Royal Mail to get to the door, but a message will be sent that strike action is incompatible with current market and economic forces.

The frustrating thing about this action is that this will not just work to crush Royal Mail, it will create serious issues for the smaller online retailers that operate small web sites or services under the eBay or Amazon marketplace schemes. What is a great way for people at home to make good use of their time and work from home and contribute to the economy will be extinguished if this action continues.

9 September 20096 May 2013 by programx360

Rediscovering Robert Newman

I’ve been reminiscing lately about the comedy talents of The Mary Whitehouse Experience. The Mary Whitehouse Experience was a radio show, then a TV show which featured David Baddiel, Robert Newman, Steve Punt and Hugh Dennis. This was in the late 80s/early 90s and played a key role in my development of my tastes in comedy, satire, irony and sarcasm (thanks Ray). You won’t be able to get anything of the show other than on You Tube, as the four guys fell out – big-time. I began to wonder what they’re doing now. David Baddiel became an even more smug git, briefly joining with Robert Newman for a sell out tour then jumping in with Frank Skinner – an altogether unfunny man next to whom David looks funny again. Hugh Dennis and Steve Punt had a brief patch working with Jaspar Carrott on his sketch show and they currently work on the satirical Now Show on Radio 4 (check out the podcast). Hugh Dennis, also appears on Mock The Week and hundreds of adverts in a voice-over capacity.

That just leaves Rob Newman. Of the four, he is definitely (for me) the funniest. But he did sort of go underground. I’ve been looking around and I’ve realised he’s taken his satire onto the next step by producing political videos regarding relevant issues such as climate change and war.

Take his History of Oil.

Part 1: Rob talks of the naivety of the US imposing democracy in the middle east.

Part 2: How the UK and US combined to install the Shah in the previously secular democracy of Iran in order to gain access to oil.

Part 3: The real reason of the First World War, that of the Berlin to Baghdad railway even to the extent that Basra saw the first deployment of British troops for the war.

Part 4: How did Tony Blair escape trial for war crimes?

Part 5: Since 1971, the US has been the world’s biggest debtor because all oil transactions have to be conducted in US Dollars.

Part 6: How the unexpected success of the Euro put fear of major economic adjustment into the US Federal Reserve when the world (through OPEC) threaten to switch oil transactions to Euros.

Part 7:

Part 8: How after 2010 the world will have run out of net energy which will cause economic failure and how the Nuclear cycle creates 75% of the carbon emissions as coal-fired power stations.

Part 9: Transport is not the only consumer of oil. Food is more responsible for oil consumption and is arguably more important than getting from A to B. Also, how the House Sub-committee for Foreign Policy report titled “Oil Fields for Military Objectives” became “An American plan for Democracy”.

This may or may not be based on fact, satire or just comedy. You may not agree with Rob’s (or my) assertions. That is immaterial, but what Rob and comics like him do is essential. They take the time to look into the established stories of world events and help people identify for themselves the real reasons behind events. This is democracy, and it’s also democracy that we need to keep hold of despite attempts to clamp down on it through legislation.

9 March 20093 December 2010 by programx360

Jacqui Smith: “I know, we’ll create a huge database”

The UK is facing a number of challenges that span professional bodies and
disciplines, which with good intentions, the Home Secretary Jacqui Smith is sure
she can solve.

Helping prevent child abuse

Child abuse is a horrendous tragedy that has recently seen a number of nasty
headlines. The Baby P scandal was a disturbing case that exposed many weaknesses in the various professional bodies that come into contact with families regarded as being “at risk”.